Recent essays on Taiwan politics and security
and a new role at RSIS!
Dear Friends and colleagues,
Firstly, I am pleased to report that I started a new position in September as a Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies | RSIS at Nanyang Technological University here in Singapore. I will continue to work on a range of issues related to political risk and regional security dynamics.
I published three essays in the last few weeks that I wanted to share, as well as a live interview about the implications of China’s ICBM launch into the Pacific Ocean.
Lai Ching-te’s First 100 Days and What It Tells Us About the Future
The essay observes that President Lai’s transition into the presidency was smooth, the first intra-party transfer of power since democratic elections began in 1996. Lai’s opinion polls are high, he has set a positive agenda for Taiwan, and he is deftly managing challenges from the opposition KMT which controls Taiwan’s parliament. Beijing’s Taiwan strategy and approach is stagnant so Lai has considerable agency to manage cross-Strait relations.
Washington will quietly hand-wring about the risk of deteriorating cross-Strait relations, or the possibility that Lai will provoke Beijing, but he quickly established channels with the Biden Administration during his campaign and he will undoubtedly maintain them to reassure Washington that he is not a provocateur or the cause of cross-Strait tensions. Every statement and political development in Taipei will be viewed in Washington in this context, however, judging whether he is departing from the status quo. Lai has built trust with Washington, but he will not get a free pass and will have to routinely reassure the U.S. that he is acting with restraint, balancing the imperative to protect Taiwan’s autonomy and dignity with Beijing’s belligerence. Washington is a risk that Lai will have to continually manage.
I also recorded a podcast for War on the Rocks’ The Insider to discuss the essay in more detail - for WOR subscribers only!
What the US Needs to Understand to Prevail in a Conflict over Taiwan
This essay considers the normalization of military coercion against Taiwan and asks the question, what is the point at which China’s coercion transitions to the use-of-military force consistent with war? Essentially, when does coercion end and conflict begin? It is a subjective, difficult decision which will ultimately be made by the President. Government deliberation in advance of that decision will expose competing interests between civilian and military leaders, and the speed by which that decision is made may determine whether the U.S. military is able to prevail once a conflict begins.
I spoke about this topic at the Taipei Security Dialogue in September and received great feedback which then informed the essay.
https://jstribune.com/thompson-what-the-us-needs-to-understand-to-prevail-in-a-conflict-over-taiwan/
What Might Deter Xi Jinping?
This is a companion piece to the discussion about transition from grey zone to war, asking the question whether Xi Jinping is deterrable. The tongue-in-cheek answer is, “he has been thus far,” but the risk of miscalculation remains. The essay observes:
Appreciating cultural differences and perspectives in both Beijing and Washington will be critical for understanding deterrence dynamics. Despite being a rational actor, Xi Jinping may determine that the correlation of forces on Taiwan are inexorably working against him, threatening the Party’s survival, and leaving him no choice but to use force, despite the uncertainty of success and certainty of the tremendous costs. Xi Jinping may not be easily deterrable, but it is worth reminding ourselves that up to now, deterrence has worked.
https://jstribune.com/thompson-what-might-deter-xi-jinping/
Live interview on CNA discussing China’s ICBM launch
On 25 September, I conducted a live interview on CNA (from my sparse new office) to discuss the significance of China’s ICBM launch into the Pacific Ocean, observing that China provided advance notification of the launch, despite not being obligated to do so. This indicates Beijing’s concern over the risk of miscalculation, and the potential appreciation of confidence building measures which could contribute to strategic stability as China clandestinely expands its nuclear warhead inventory and delivery systems.
Stay tuned for more articles and insights. I suspect the last quarter of the year will focus on the implications of the U.S. elections and what it means for Asia and the U.S.-China relationship.
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