Valuable firsthand accounts—but they come with a major caveat: impressions formed by foreigners during brief encounters with Chinese officials are often deeply misleading.
The familiar “this guy is different” halo effect recurs with striking regularity among PLA generals that American counterparts deal with, from Zhang Wannian to Wu Shengli. A striking parallel is Edward Luttwak’s dinner in Manila with former Rocket Force commander Wei Fenghe, who later became Defense Minister. Speaking through an interpreter, Luttwak found Wei to be "bright, cautious, thoughtful, and skeptical of war talk." He wrote, "One must hope that he can restrain the PLA careerists who seek XJP’s favor by aggressive words & deeds." After Wei was purged for corruption, Luttwak insisted the corruption accusation was absurd, claiming instead that Wei was targeted because he had doubts about Xi’s bellicosity. This illustrates how subjective judgments can distort objective analysis.
In external engagements, PLA generals—and entire delegations—operate in a highly disciplined “barbarian handler” mode. What outsiders see is a carefully curated persona, not an individual’s true standing or beliefs.
Analytically, three layers must be kept distinct: who he is, who we think he is, and who we want him to be. Collapsing them leads straight to mirror-imaging and wishful thinking—and, ultimately, systematic miscalculation of the CCP and the PLA.
That inquisitiveness and intellect you describe in Zhang, his capacity for leadership and his natural aura, might be key in his undoing. It’s unfortunate, but in the face of a one man iron fist ruling style—especially one such as Xi who has a reputation for being an untalented underdog stepped on by smarter, more elite, more powerful red princes in his past—it could make Zhang stand out in a bad way amongst party ranks and become an increasing eyesore, especially as stronger opposition and competitors are eliminated one after another.
Thanks for the personal insight, really gave more than regular impersonal or cut and dry policy-based criticism.
As a former government official who once negotiated with the CCP, my view—shared by some of my former colleagues and Taiwanese scholars—is that Xi Jinping is the biggest dove in the CCP, the primary advocate for peaceful reunification, and the main force suppressing the military's push for forcible unification. Curious about Zhang's views on the Taiwan issue?
Reminiscent of the long history for thousands of years of Chinese imperial palace power rivalry, immersed in ruthless conspiracies and brutal violence, even in contemporary CCP’s history past 9 decades has shown how intimate comrades can become lethal enemies within the power struggle den.
written by someone who knows literally nothing about the working of the Chinese state. all conjunctures without any facts to back up on why Zhang was expelled and why it matters (or doesn't). this is the state of affairs in the west - opinions without data but with a lot of ideology.
Thank you for this insightful and revealing post and what it says about the current chinese leadership. As a former SCMP reporter in Beijing, I feel for Minnie.
@Drew Thompson how certain are you that Xi and Zhang were friends from their shared childhood? I read another analysis that suggested that Zhang would not have had affinity with Xi because Zhang was military class and Xi was political class. This resonated with me from my own dealing with military: there is suspicion of the civilian/political class.
From my many years of helping multinationals deal with their business in China, one of the problems with foreigners dealing with Chinese governmental people is that:
They run into so many complete idiots that are all about politics and loyalty, but are incapable of actually understanding anything and getting anything done (without cheating), that whenever they finally see someone (especially someone higher up) that seems minimally intelligent, open and capable, they give that person way too much credit.
Essentially, they desperately bend over backwards to find an example that would convince themselves that their low regard for everyone they have run into so far has not been due to racism or cultural bias.
This looks exactly like that. It's like "hey this monkey rides a bicycle and knows not to shit on the sofa! Wow! I like him!"
Could it be that your very affinity is indicative of his reluctance to pursue a more adversarial role when dealing with the U.S. Had he been advising Xi to back off the build up to a confrontation with Taiwan; and “conspiring” with like minded Generals to slow things down ? Just because Xi has whittled the Central Committee down to just one; certainly he must have extensive sources of expert military advice beyond the calcified committee he inherited.
Not surprising, but still disappointing and disheartening. I appreciate your personal insight on this one, Drew. I hold Minnie in the Light and hope she is eventually released.
Valuable firsthand accounts—but they come with a major caveat: impressions formed by foreigners during brief encounters with Chinese officials are often deeply misleading.
The familiar “this guy is different” halo effect recurs with striking regularity among PLA generals that American counterparts deal with, from Zhang Wannian to Wu Shengli. A striking parallel is Edward Luttwak’s dinner in Manila with former Rocket Force commander Wei Fenghe, who later became Defense Minister. Speaking through an interpreter, Luttwak found Wei to be "bright, cautious, thoughtful, and skeptical of war talk." He wrote, "One must hope that he can restrain the PLA careerists who seek XJP’s favor by aggressive words & deeds." After Wei was purged for corruption, Luttwak insisted the corruption accusation was absurd, claiming instead that Wei was targeted because he had doubts about Xi’s bellicosity. This illustrates how subjective judgments can distort objective analysis.
In external engagements, PLA generals—and entire delegations—operate in a highly disciplined “barbarian handler” mode. What outsiders see is a carefully curated persona, not an individual’s true standing or beliefs.
Analytically, three layers must be kept distinct: who he is, who we think he is, and who we want him to be. Collapsing them leads straight to mirror-imaging and wishful thinking—and, ultimately, systematic miscalculation of the CCP and the PLA.
That inquisitiveness and intellect you describe in Zhang, his capacity for leadership and his natural aura, might be key in his undoing. It’s unfortunate, but in the face of a one man iron fist ruling style—especially one such as Xi who has a reputation for being an untalented underdog stepped on by smarter, more elite, more powerful red princes in his past—it could make Zhang stand out in a bad way amongst party ranks and become an increasing eyesore, especially as stronger opposition and competitors are eliminated one after another.
Thanks for the personal insight, really gave more than regular impersonal or cut and dry policy-based criticism.
As a former government official who once negotiated with the CCP, my view—shared by some of my former colleagues and Taiwanese scholars—is that Xi Jinping is the biggest dove in the CCP, the primary advocate for peaceful reunification, and the main force suppressing the military's push for forcible unification. Curious about Zhang's views on the Taiwan issue?
Reminiscent of the long history for thousands of years of Chinese imperial palace power rivalry, immersed in ruthless conspiracies and brutal violence, even in contemporary CCP’s history past 9 decades has shown how intimate comrades can become lethal enemies within the power struggle den.
written by someone who knows literally nothing about the working of the Chinese state. all conjunctures without any facts to back up on why Zhang was expelled and why it matters (or doesn't). this is the state of affairs in the west - opinions without data but with a lot of ideology.
So, which part or parts are "ideological"?
Mr Thompson doesn't claim to know or to wish to explain reason(s) for Gen Zhang's expulsion.
He does assert that without competent, professional advice, Xi may only get what he needs to hear.
Maybe yr comment is written with a mistaken or preconceived notion?
Why waste yr time here?
This guy is no more than an Old Pink.
He doesn't even realize that China's economy is collapsing.
He needs to come live in China and open his eyes.
It is too complicated to be explained by a single article, something you perceived to be true might not be true . Quantum state I would say
"No ideology - just data and facts"?
Get away with the AI crap.
You are no more than an Old Pink.
You don't even realize that China's economy is collapsing.
Come live in China and open your eyes.
Thank you for this insightful and revealing post and what it says about the current chinese leadership. As a former SCMP reporter in Beijing, I feel for Minnie.
This is a very good article, perhaps the best one I read after Zhang’s news came out.
This was fascinating, humane and well written. Hope you get your friends back.
Very insightful.
All I can think of right now is North-Koreanization of China.
@Drew Thompson how certain are you that Xi and Zhang were friends from their shared childhood? I read another analysis that suggested that Zhang would not have had affinity with Xi because Zhang was military class and Xi was political class. This resonated with me from my own dealing with military: there is suspicion of the civilian/political class.
From my many years of helping multinationals deal with their business in China, one of the problems with foreigners dealing with Chinese governmental people is that:
They run into so many complete idiots that are all about politics and loyalty, but are incapable of actually understanding anything and getting anything done (without cheating), that whenever they finally see someone (especially someone higher up) that seems minimally intelligent, open and capable, they give that person way too much credit.
Essentially, they desperately bend over backwards to find an example that would convince themselves that their low regard for everyone they have run into so far has not been due to racism or cultural bias.
This looks exactly like that. It's like "hey this monkey rides a bicycle and knows not to shit on the sofa! Wow! I like him!"
Could it be that your very affinity is indicative of his reluctance to pursue a more adversarial role when dealing with the U.S. Had he been advising Xi to back off the build up to a confrontation with Taiwan; and “conspiring” with like minded Generals to slow things down ? Just because Xi has whittled the Central Committee down to just one; certainly he must have extensive sources of expert military advice beyond the calcified committee he inherited.
Not surprising, but still disappointing and disheartening. I appreciate your personal insight on this one, Drew. I hold Minnie in the Light and hope she is eventually released.
A fantastic read thank you
I really enjoyed reading this - thank you!
Great insights are often anchored in relationships. Thanks for sharing yours!