U.S. election implications for China and Taiwan
... in a podcast and an essay
Dear friends and colleagues,
I’d like to share two recent outputs looking at the U.S. election implications for China and Taiwan.
Kopi Time with Taimur Baig podcast E136
I had the great pleasure of joining DBS’ Principal Economist Taimur Baig to talk about “all-things Taiwan” starting with an assessment of Lai’s first months in office, Taiwan-Southeast Asian relations, the risks and thresholds of a cross-Strait conflict, and the implications of either a Trump or Harris Administration for Taiwan.
Before he hit record, Taimur and I did have a nice chat about our respective home offices, how books bring him knowledge and buddha looking over my shoulder brings me peace as I think about the alternatives to peace.
Think China: Can the next US president achieve a breakthrough in US-China relations?
There is intense speculation about the next U.S. president and what it means for Asia and U.S.-China relations. I contributed a piece to Think China, a Singapore Press Holdings publication.
I argue that neither candidate has set out a foreign policy vision and there is considerable path dependency in the overall bilateral relationship. Some PRC scholars have opined that Harris is pragmatic and therefore would see the benefits of cooperation over competition. Beijing expected Biden to revert to the Obama Administration’s approach to China, but they were disappointed and should not make the same mistake again. I predict that competition is here to stay, and much of that has to do with the changes in China since Xi Jinping came to power. He is the constant variable in the bilateral relationship equation.
https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/can-next-us-president-achieve-breakthrough-us-china-relations
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